Now that we know Dharma/Others/Widmore off-island activities, like the attempted early recruitment of Locke, I have devised this theory:
Vincent didn't like Walt's stepdad, Brian. But of course he loved Walt. Perhaps Vincent (aka Smokey) was undercover to keep an eye on Walt. Maybe Walt's mom was really protective over Walt (she knew his secret?) and wouldn't let Richard or Abaddon near him. When Walt's mom, the only person separating Walt from the island, dies, Vincent is mean to Brian and pretty much forces Brian give Vincent to Walt.
And Juliet says the sonic fence hasn't worked in years because for years Smokey has been off island, with Jacob's successor: Walt.
Vincent flashback
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